Gold and silver prices are moderately higher in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, as the bulls are so far having a good week. Today’s just concluded two-day meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC)saw no change in U.S. interest rates. No changes were expected and the FOMC statement said the 0 to 0.25% target range for the Fed funds rate will remain in place through 2022. The Fed projected a U.S. GDP decline of 6.5% this year and an unemployment rate of 9.3% for the year. The statement said the Covid-19 pandemic will weigh heavily on U.S. growth prospects, inflation and jobs in the near term. The Fed does not see problematic price inflation on the horizon. Traders now await an afternoon press conference from Fed Chairman Jay Powell, whose remarks will also be closely scrutinized. Gold prices did move several dollars higher after the FOMC statement. August gold futures were last up $8.70 an ounce at $1,730.60. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.121 at $17.91 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. The Nasdaq index today hit another record high, while the S&P 500 stock index on Monday hit a three-month high. Risk appetite remains generally upbeat at mid-week as businesses in major economies continue to open back up after the Covid-19 lockdown and social distancing guidelines are relaxed.
In other news today, the OECD think tank forecast global economic growth will fall 6% this year, if a second wave of Covid-19 can be avoided. The OECD also said the world economy “is on a tightrope” and a second wave of the pandemic would be a terrible blow to the world economy.
Options may be cash settled or physically delivered. ETF options, like SPY, expire into a position in the ETF. Index options, like the comparable Mini-SPX, are cash settled. This key difference is particularly important when we talk about “gap risk.”
China got some dour economic news at mid-week as it reported its industrial prices in May fell by 3.7%, year-on-year. Consumer inflation fell to a 2.4% growth rate. Both figures undershot market expectations.
The important outside markets see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower and hitting a three-month low overnight. The greenback is in a serious swoon. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high above $40.00 Monday, and trading around $39.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is currently around the 0.775% level.
Technically, August gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and are working on negating a near-term price downtrend. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,750.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,671.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,735.20 and then at $1,740.00. First support is seen at $1,710.00 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0
July silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $19.075 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.15. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.165 and then at $18.40. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $17.495 and then at last week’s low of $17.375. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.0.
July N.Y. copper closed up 610 points at 266.00 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a 4.5-month high. The copper bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in an 11-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 275.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 250.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 266.50 cents and then at 270.00 cents. First support is seen at 262.50 cents and then at 260.00 cents.